Storage · Cycle
Is the memory cycle peaking? Six core signals
Audio version · MiniMax TTS · male-qn-jingying
Prices themselves tell the story
Look at a few numbers (Q2 2026 contract prices, TrendForce):
- DRAM contract prices: up 58% to 63% QoQ
- NAND Flash contract prices: up 70% to 75% QoQ
- HBM supply gap: about 5.1% (the highest since 2011)
- DRAM supply gap: about 4.9% (the highest since 2011)
Note the detail: HBM rises faster than DRAM, and DRAM rises faster than NAND. This is not an average move. It is a transmission of price pressure from the top of the supply chain downstream. HBM serves AI compute cards, where demand is most inelastic; DRAM serves servers, less inelastic; NAND serves SSDs, the most elastic. The further upstream, the tighter the supply; the further downstream, the earlier the rise.
Conclusion: this round is structural scarcity, not broad-based tightness.
Why a "super cycle" rather than an ordinary one
| Feature | Ordinary cycle | This cycle |
|---|---|---|
| Core driver | PC / mobile / servers | AI compute |
| Demand elasticity | High (price rises kill demand) | Low (AI must buy) |
| Supply response | 12 to 18 months to expand | 24 to 36 months (technical bottlenecks) |
| Duration | 3 to 4 years | 5+ years (industry consensus) |
Consumer-side price rises will naturally cool the market. Not a crash — a gentle easing.
Six core signals
Six dimensions to judge where we are in the cycle:
Signal 1: Price moves — still rising
- DRAM up 58% to 63% QoQ
- NAND up 70% to 75% QoQ
- Trend: top not yet in
Signal 2: Supply gap — still widening
- DRAM gap 4.9%, NAND gap 4.2%, HBM gap 5.1%
Signal 3: Big-three expansion — deliberately not
- Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron are deliberately not expanding
- HBM capacity already locked in by AI customers
Signal 4: Domestic-firm earnings — exploding
- GigaDevice: Q1 2026 net profit +522.79%
- Netac: revenue +502%, net profit +4943%
Signal 5: Domestic substitution — accelerating
- CXMT filed for STAR Market IPO, valuation 150 billion
- YMTC Q1 revenue above 200 billion
Signal 6: Stock prices — partly priced in
- Micron +249% YTD, SK Hynix +218%, Samsung +175%
Six signals: five green lights, one yellow.
Final verdict
We are in the middle-to-late stage of this super cycle. Not the top, but no longer the bottom either.
One sentence for those still boarding
This cycle is not "rally then crash". It is "rally then plateau, then gentle cooling." Investors do not need to call the top — follow earnings, follow capacity, follow AI compute growth.